Precap 2/14 - The root to UNC’s struggles, and a big bubble Tuesday

 

2/14

Recap

• Top mid-majors prove themselves and avoid upsets

Yesterday, a lot of first-place teams in conferences played other solid teams and looked to avoid losses. We’ll start with the MEAC, where Howard devoured the second best team in the conference, UMES. Howard’s the team to beat, beating the team that had handed them their only conference loss earlier in the season. They’ll likely be a 16 seed come March, but could potentially climb to a dangerous 15 seed if they win out.

In the CAA, the top 3 teams played against solid competition. Hofstra, the current favorite to win the conference, faced a dangerous Drexel team. They ended up comfortably winning by 15, so I’m not sure if anyone is going to catch them, other than Charleston. Charleston still has a chance for an at-large bid, and if they win out and lose to Hofstra in the conference finals, I think it could definitely happen. They faced the team that had kicked them out of the tournament in the first place, Northeastern. And, they won by 36. They’ve become more consistent with their 3-point shooting, and if they are shooting over 40% from 3, I don’t think anybody in the conference can catch them, even Hofstra. In fact, I believe they are near a top-25 team when shooting that well. Lastly, third-place Towson has been on a decline recently, and could turn it around at William and Mary. However, they lost and fell further behind Hofstra and Charleston in what used to be a “big 3”.

• Yesterday’s 3 high-major matchups

Yesterday, as you may be able to guess from the title of this paragraph, that there were 3 high-major matchups. However, they weren’t just any high-major matchups; 2 of them were between tournament teams, and one was a big rivalry game.

We’ll start with the rivalry game. This game was Texas at Texas Tech, and to give you some context, last time they played, Texas won by 2. Texas was coming off a dominant win against West Virginia, while Texas Tech was getting Fardaws Aimaq back and coming off a win against Texas Tech. Here’s how it went - They were neck-and-neck all first half, but Texas Tech took a 9-point lead at the end of the first half. It went similarly to this in the second half, with Tech up double digits most of the game. However, Texas fought back after hitting 3 threes in a row to tie the game up. After that, Tech scored almost every possession for the rest of the game and ended up winning by 7. I think that Tech is a tournament team, but it could be too late for them. If they win out and make a strong Big 12 tournament run, I could see that changing.

Next up, I’ll do these two quickly. We’ll start with Miami - UNC, in a game UNC really needed to win against a very hot Miami team. Carolina is just inside the bubble at Last Four In, and could give themselves some wiggle room. However, Miami stayed hot and the game didn’t go in Carolina’s favor, as they lost by 8 at home. They have some other win opportunities, so they’re definitely not out of it yet, just on the wrong side of the bubble. They really need Brady Manek. Pete Nance just hasn’t shown up in important games, scoring 2 here and 2 against Duke. Bacot, Black, Love, and Davis scored 68 of Carolina’s 72. That’s just ridiculous. The shooting has all been put on Love’s back without Manek, and he went 2-12 from the 3. To turn this around, they’re either going to need Nance to pick things up, Love to start shooting better (not his fault), or make a lineup change.

Lastly, West Virginia got beaten by double digits again. It was against another ranked team, but recently, they haven’t gotten close to picking up big wins. And to be honest, I think it’s just their home court advantage, as they’ve won way more at home than away. They’ve won one away game in the Big 12 against Tecas Tech this season, with 3 wins at home and a win at home against Auburn. We’ll see how they do on a neutral court, but it is concerning.

Preview

• Not too impactful implications on an interesting Tuesday

This title may seem a bit confusing, but I’ll explain. We have a lot of matchups between very good teams, but none of them really mean anything in terms of potential outcomes. For example, Missouri-Auburn. Both of these teams are fringe Top-25 teams, as Auburn played pretty well against #1 Alabama and Missouri just beat #10 Tennessee. Despite being decently close to the Top-25, Auburn is projected as a 9 seed and Missouri will likely be projected around there as well once ESPN releases their new bracketology. So, they both have some work to do before the regular season ends. Missouri could easily find themselves in second place in the SEC, as their schedule is very easy after this Auburn game. We’ll learn if they can make that run today.

In the best game of the day, #18 Creighton visits #24 Providence in a game with small implications but big meaning. What I mean by that is it could have implications going forward, but this game itself likely won’t change much. They’re both very close to first and very far from fifth, so win or lose, they won’t fall and still have time to make it up. However, Providence has lost 2 of their last 3 (win at home against Georgetown), and hasn’t beaten a currently ranked team since early January. Meanwhile, Creighton is the hottest team in the country, winning 8 straight. If they win here, they’ll tie Marquette for first in the conference. If Providence wins, they’ll turn around their losing streak and get within a game of first, as well as prove themselves to the rest of the conference that they’re back.

• Tuesday’s Bubble Implications

Next up, we have a “bubble elimination” game in Wisonsin-Michigan. Though Michigan would almost surely get eliminated from the tournament with a loss here, Wisconsin could still find themselves in the tournament with a loss. Despite that, it’s a very important game for both teams, as both are right on the bubble for now. It’ll also add some momentum for both teams when they play again in a few weeks. 

Oklahoma State also has a big win opportunity against Kansas today in a game that would give them a ton of wiggle room inside the bubble. Last time, in Kansas, Oklahoma State lost by 2. Now they’re at home, are on a 5 game win streak, and are only underdogs by two points. It just seems like the Cowboys will finally seal themselves inside the bubble. Since this will be a tournament team (most likely) if they win, make sure to catch this game as we will be able to learn a lot from this team at its best against Kansas.