Precap 2/15 - TCU's potential, Penn State's path to the tournament, and Bryant-UMass Lowell Preview

2/15

Recap

• Providence - Creighton

Wow. If you watched this game, you would be flabbergasted by how competitive it was. This game went to two overtimes, and if it wasn’t for a last-second missed alley oop from Creighton, this game would have ended in regulation. But, it didn’t, and Providence won in 2OT. Providence would have distanced themselves from the top 3 with a loss, but they got the job done, staying in the race for first place. For Creighton, this isn’t too concerning. They lost against a ranked team who had played the best they had all season in a tough environment while having a bit of an off-game. Their shooting struggles came back, as they shot 30% from 3. If they get this down by March, they’ll be a national title contender, so make sure to watch that.

• Upsets

Yesterday, two ranked teams got upset by non-tournament teams. The first one was #23 NC State, who lost at Syracuse by 3. This isn’t a huge deal for them, and though they’ll fall out of the top 25, they still have 3 of their 4 games left against tournament or bubble teams. They’ll be a 9 seed after this loss, but if they win out and have an impressive ACC tournament run, I could see them reaching a 6 or 7 seed. This will be especially possible if they overtake Clemson for fourth place and earn 2 byes in the ACC tournament.

Kansas State also was upset at Oklahoma, and this is very concerning for the Wildcats. They’ve lost 5 of their last 7, one win being against a non-tournament Florida team and the other coming against a TCU team plagued with injuries. They only went 4-20 from 3, and their usually solid defense allowed 79 points. They really need to turn this around, and have two big opportunities to do just that at home against Iowa State and Baylor.

• Bubble Implications

While two teams may have eliminated themselves from the tournament, two others could have saved their seasons. We’ll start with Michigan - Wisconsin. These two teams were both on the outside of the bubble, and would be eliminated with a loss. And, despite not scoring a single field goal in the final 10 minutes, Wisconsin eliminated Michigan from the tournament. The Wolverines could always make an insane Big-10 tournament run and win the tournament, but with Purdue in their way, that may be difficult. Wisconsin still has some work to do, but with a relatively easy schedule left (outside of Purdue), it’s possible.

New Mexico has been falling off the bubble recently, as they used to be firmly in the tournament at a 7 seed, but have lost 5 of their last 6, and are now outside the bubble. They’ve been terrible recently, and they really need to turn it around right now. The Lobos probably can’t afford to lose another regular season game, but could save their season starting now.

Lastly, Penn State, who was also inside the bubble, recently won a huge game against a fringe-top 25 team in Illinois, and now has started creeping back into the bubble. Jalen Pickett had a ridiculous 41 points, as he really showed up when his team was on the brink of tournament elimination. Their next two games are must-wins against non-tournament teams, then they play some 7-9 seeds in Rutgers, Northwestern, and Maryland. If they can win two of those games, then make it to the semifinal of the Big 10 tournament, I think they should be fine. Make sure to watch their path as well.

Preview

• Tennessee - Alabama

In the game of the week, #1 Alabama visits #10 Tennessee in Tennessee's most important game of the season. The Volunteers are on a 2-game losing streak, and though both losses were due to buzzer beaters, they still played unranked teams close and ended up paying the price. Alabama, meanwhile, is undefeated in the second best conference in the country. They likely won’t lose another game all regular season, with no ranked opponents left and all their remaining games against tournament teams being played at home. They’re already two games ahead of second, so they’re almost a lock for first in the conference, but Tennessee could make a huge statement to the rest of the SEC and the country tonight.

• Best of Wednesday’s loaded mid-major slate

We’ll start with a long anticipated game whose stock may have dropped since the start of conference play in Bryant - UMass Lowell. These teams had the best resumes and rosters coming into the league, as Bryant was 9-4 with wins over Syracuse and Towson, while UMass Lowell had one of the best win percentages in the country at 13-2. Bryant had plenty of high-major talent, with an incredible starting 5 in Saint Peter’s star Doug Edert, former Miami and Memphis role player Earl Timberlake, last season’s second leading scorer Charles Pride, fifth-year Rhode Island transfer Antwan Walker, and their leading scorer in La Salle transfer Sherif Gross-Bullock. Meanwhile, UMass Lowell is like the Virginia of mid-majors. They’ve got a deep bench, are ranked #77 in defensive scoring in the country, and spread the ball around a lot. They’re both 7-5 in the AmEast, are tied for third, and are both in need of a big boost like this to get them going. Make sure not to miss this one.

The SoCon is in a three way tie for first place, with Furman, UNC Greensboro, and Samford. Furman is looking like the best team in the conference, but UNC Greensboro or Samford could step up and be the team to challenge them with a win against each other today. Furman and Samford still have to play in their last game of the regular season, and if UNCG wins here, they’re almost guaranteed a share for first in the regular season title, as they have a very easy remaining schedule. Samford will try to keep them from that, as well as building up momentum for their duel with Furman in a few weeks.

• Other notable high-major games

Debatably, we have a game even better than Alabama - Tennessee because of the implications it could have. That game is Xavier at Marquette. Marquette is .5 games ahead of Xavier for first place, and after Providence beat Creighton yesterday, those two games are now a game behind Marquette. So, whoever wins this game will be in first place in the conference. Last time these teams met, Xavier won by 3. March Madness wise, Xavier is currently projected as a 4 seed as Marquette is projected as a 3 seed. However, if Marquette were to win this game, then also win a tough one at Creighton Tuesday, I could see them making a push for a 2 seed. Likewise, if Xavier were to win this, then get past Providence on March 1st, they could make a push for a 3 seed. This game has a lot of implications, so make sure not to miss it.

Next up, we have one of the most exciting games of the season between two teams that have both beaten Purdue in their last 3 games. Yes, Indiana visits Northwestern in another Northwestern game that should be packed with students and energy. If you missed the Purdue game, Northwestern fans really showed out and debatably won the game for the Huskies. They’ll have another chance to improve their tournament seeding, as they’re currently a 7, which isn’t great, but they could surely move further in based on the rest of their season. Indiana is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 3 straight, and look to continue that against a really good Northwestern team. I think Trayce Jackson-Davis will take over and Indiana will win the game, but in this Northwestern environment, you never know.

Iowa State and TCU have been falling off recently, but for TCU, it isn’t really their fault. Their best player, Mike Miles, as well as their leading rebounder, Eddie Lampkin, have both been out with injuries and are optimistic to return for this game. The Horned Frogs have been forced into a similar situation as UAB, who lost their leading scorer, Jordan Walker, and struggled without him. But, when he came back, the rest of the team had found a way to play on their own without him and they thrived being able to spread the ball and score from multiple places. I think TCU will be in a similar spot, as though they’ve lost 3 straight, their weakness of not spreading the ball enough could be fixed. Watch that against a struggling Iowa State team who also looks to bounce back today.