Precap 2/2-2/3 - Charleston and FAU's struggles explained, UAB's revival, and 4 conference final previews

2/2-2/3

Recap

• The fall of the top mid-majors

FAU and Charleston, who had both made an unlikely run into the Top 25, have now, unfortunately, been exposed. Charleston had lost to a very good Hofstra team last week, who today, earned the second place spot in the CAA (behind Charleston) after beating Towson, who Hofstra was formerly tied with. But yesterday, Charleston lost to #5 seeded Drexel, likely eliminating the Cougars from a potential at-large bid. They are still favorites to win the CAA, but with a recently rising Hofstra team who had just beaten the two best teams in the conference, their path isn’t as easy as it once seemed.

FAU lost to a very good UAB team that had recently experienced a rebirth. Let me explain. UAB’s leading scorer Jelly Walker has been out for 5 games after an injury, and this forced UAB’s other players to pick up the slack and produce without Walker in the game. They lost at first, but guys like Trae Jemison, KJ Buffen, Ledarrius Brewer, and Eric Gaines stepped up and looked incredible in the games Walker was out. Their defense has also been far better, holding 3 teams to under 60 while Walker was out. So, this UAB team learned how to spread the ball, spread out scoring, and play better defense. And now that Walker is back, none of that has gone away. In Walker’s return against a ranked FAU team, UAB had 8 guys score 7 or more, as Walker had 13. Though they don’t have a chance at earning an at-large anymore, this team is loking like the team many expected them to be earlier in the season and now is in prime position to win the C-USA tournament.

What FAU and Charleston’s struggles have been attributed to:

3 point shooting. FAU and Charleston are both teams that (especially Charleston) get lots of their scoring from 3 point shooting. In FAU’s loss, they shot 22% from beyond the arc, and in Charleston’s two losses, they shot just 16% from 3 against Hofstra and just 21% against Drexel. Charleston without 3 point shooting is not a tournament team, and though I believe they are NEAR a top-25 team when shooting well, their path to the tournament most likely will have to be through the CAA automatic qualifier. For FAU, they simply got out-energized and out-hustled. Their skill and experience almost was enough to get the job done, but shooting 22% from 3 against a UAB team that has figured it out won’t do the job. I think they’re still a top-25 team, but will need to prove themselves once more to the rest of the country.

• Big Ten Struggles

In two games, things went VERY wrong for Ohio State and Northwestern. Ohio State was already outside of the bubble, but after losing the easiest game they had for the rest of the season, things are looking bleak for the Buckeye’s March chances. They were already projected outside of the bubble, but really needed this win as they now are only playing tournament teams for the rest of the season

Northwestern, as I mentioned in yesterday’s precap, NEEDED a bounce back win extremely bad tonight. They finished at the bottom of the Big Ten last year, and in one of the biggest surprises of the year, Northwestern secured themselves inside of the bracket. But now, they’ve lost two in a row by double digits. Michigan may have begun to save their season by beating Northwestern, but they have a long way to go. Northwestern has 2 games against Ohio State and Wisconsin to get things back on track before playing tournament teams for the rest of their regular season. They’re starting to move back on the bubble, but could turn it around in these upcoming games.

• Upsets in the Big West and craziness in the Horizon League.

In today’s mid-major segment, we’ll start with the craziness that was the Horizon League. First of all, in the first game of the day, first-place Milwaukee BARELY beat last-place IUPUI. This would have likely been the biggest upset of the year so far, similar to last year’s Chicago State - New Mexico State matchup. However, that didn’t happen, as Milwaukee beat IUPUI by 3. But this is encouraging for IUPUI and they looked good in this game, so the program seems to be heading in the right direction.

Following that up, tied for first-place Youngstown State went to TRIPLE OT against Wright State. Wright State’s Trey Calvin had 44 points and they lost on a buzzer beater layup from Dwayne Cohill. And with that, Youngstown State is still in first place. Their defense will need to get better against Marques Warrick and also #1 Northern Kentucky, unless they want to go to another triple overtime game. The last thing to note in the Horizon League was that Antoine Davis dropped a casual 35 as Detroit Mercy picked up a huge win against the best team other than the trio in first place, Cleveland State.

Moving on from the Horizon League, the Big West had a big day as all of the top 4 teams played weaker competition. However, two of them lost. Former Second-place UC Riverside lost to 3-8 Cal State Bakersfield, and former third-place Hawaii lost to 6th-place UC Davis. As I missed these games, I don’t have much else to say here except that nobody is safe in the Big West except for UCSB.

Preview

Despite the lack of games, we actually have some extremely good ones across multiple conferences.

In the first of many conference final previews, Cornell visits Princeton to move ahead of them at first, as they’re tied right now. If a team can make a big statement now, the next time they face, it would be even more of an advantage in the conference final game (assuming they both make it there). Other than that, there are some standing shake-up games that could change the landscape of the conference in Dartmouth-Brown, Yale-Harvard, and Penn-Columbia.

In another conference final preview, Kent State visits Akron and they are also tied for first in the conference. Kent State is known to be one of the best mid-majors in the conference, and while they could assert their dominance by beating the second best team away, Akron could send a HUGE message that they (and other teams) can compete with Kent State. Eastern Michigan, who is one of the most interesting teams in the country, looks to keep up their high level of play against fourth place Ball State and begin their climb to one of the top spots in the conference.

In the MAAC, there aren’t any conference final previews unfortunately. Instead, each of the top 5 teams play other worse teams that they should beat. I won’t list all the games off, as though the top 5 should win, upsets happen. And if those upsets do happen, I'll make sure to cover them in tomorrow’s recap.

The A10 only has one game today, but it’s incredible. It’s between Saint Louis and VCU, the first and second placed teams in the conference, just a half a game apart. Because the A10 is such a deep conference, we may not see these two meet in the final of the A10 tournament, but we can learn a lot about these two teams as they play the best competition they’ll play in the rest of the regular season. Also, with a win, one of these teams could make it back into bubble conversations.

Today is an insane example of quality over quantity. In the Mountain West, Boise State and San Diego State are tied for first. And guess what? They play each other tonight! San Diego State opens as the 7-point favorites at home, but Boise State could permanently (almost) seal themselves inside the bracket with a win here. Watch the Tyson Degenhart - Matt Bradley matchup as well as the Max Rice - Darrion Trammell matchup. We have four of the best players in the conference and the two best teams in the conference facing off, so make sure not to miss it.