Precap 2/5-2/6 | Sunday's bubble matchups reviewed, Duke-Miami, and Texas-Kansas

2/5-2/6

Recap

Mid-Major Upsets

Last night, there weren’t a ton of games at the mid-major level but some upsets happened despite the small sample size. Two of these upsets took place in the MAAC, with a hot Siena team being taken down by Niagara. Despite having just beaten Iona, the Saints have now dropped two straight and are now no longer in first in the conference. For Niagara, going into Siena’s stadium and picking up the W shows us that they are also in contention for the MAAC title, and they can prove themselves even more in their upcoming 2-game stretch against 5th-placed Quinnipiac and 2nd-placed Iona. Speaking of Quinnipiac, they were the other team to be upset, losing to formerly last-place Mount St. Mary’s. This is very concerning for the Bobcats, as this game was at home, and Quinnipiac is now tied with Niagara for fourth in the conference, and this fourth-place game is in 4 days and will be a very important one to watch for Niagara and Quinnipiac both to prove themselves. There was also an upset in the A10, with Fordham losing at Richmond right after beating Saint Louis. This really shows how much parity this conference has despite the standings, and how easily some of the top teams could have their seasons ended in the A10 tournament. The “Big 5” in the A10 we have today could all lose at any time and there’s a possibility we won’t have two of them playing each other in the conference final. St. Bonaventure now sits at third with Dayton, but it’s still VCU’s conference to lose. Outside of the Bonnies, every other Big 5 team will get another shot at VCU, so pay attention to those in the coming days

Sunday’s Bubble Implications

There were a couple of bubble games in the Big 10 that eliminated two teams, left one team hanging on a cliff, and secured another team for now. Starting with Ohio State - Michigan, both of these teams were on the wrong side of the bubble entering the game, and the loser would be virtually eliminated from the tournament. And, at home, Michigan won by 8. Michigan still isn’t on the right side of the bubble, but with multiple winnable upcoming games, they could sneak their way back in. Wisconsin may have also been eliminated from the tournament after losing to Northwestern, who really needed this win to bounce back from two consecutive blowout losses. Lastly, Penn State lost to Nebraska, which is a loss they really couldn’t have. Penn State doesn't play another ranked team for the rest of the season, so they could play themselves back into the tournament. Standings-wise, we have a 6-way tie for third place among tournament teams, and whoever emerges among that group will determine who earns the higher seed come March. And since we have a lot of games between teams from that group coming up, the standings will shake back up.

Preview

We have a singular huge game in the ACC that will help determine NCAA Tournament seeding. That game is Miami-Duke, and while the winner will move far into the Top-25, the loser will move further away. Both are projected as 6 seeds right now, so the loser will move down to 7 and the winner will move up to 5 or 4. In the last time they met, Duke beat Miami by 2 at Duke, but now Miami is home and they’re currently four-point favorites. However, Duke has been looking better recently, so this game could be one of the best ACC games of the year.

In one of the biggest games of the year so far, Texas visits Kansas. At 2 games behind first, the Jayhawks have lost 4 of their last 6 and could really turn things around tonight with a win against the best team in the conference. Texas is currently in first place, with the only team within a game behind being Iowa State. Texas could distance themselves even more, or Kansas could start catching back up. This may be the game Kansas needs to get things back to where they were earlier in the season. 

Lastly, there are a lot of boring mid-major games, but there is one that sticks out a bit, that being Arkansas - Pine Bluff at Jackson State. Jackson State started out conference play very well after only winning one game in non-conference play, but have now lost 3 straight, their most recent loss being to last-place Mississippi Valley State. Much like Kansas, they have a big bounce back game today against #4 AR-Pine Bluff, as they could move to 2 games away from first with a win here. They likely won’t crack the top 4 again with a loss here, so it’s a very important game to watch,