Sun Belt Tournament 2023 Preview and Predictions

Sun Belt Preview and Predictions

Favorites

Southern Miss

After coming off of finishing dead last in the C-USA a year ago, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles are now flourishing in their new conference, as they finished first in this very deep conference. Their top two scorers, Felipe Haase and Austin Crowley transferred in this season and have both been all-Sun Belt level players. 

Southern Miss’ playstyle is similar to that of an Arizona - Fast paced and lots of threes. A worry for them earlier in the season was if their numerous transfers (4) would mesh well with each other and with Southern Miss’ returnees. However, after starting the season 6-0 with wins over Vanderbilt and Liberty, it was obvious that that wouldn’t be a problem. 

However, this playstyle has caused them to go cold in some very important games. Against Marshall and South Alabama, they only shot 25% and 23%, respectively, causing them to lose both games by 22 and 31. Both of those games, as well as their recent loss to Old Dominion, were away. 

So the question is, will we see Southern Miss’ home dominance or their away inconsistencies at Pensacola Bay Center in the Sun Belt tournament?

Louisiana

Louisiana, who was picked first to finish in the Sun Belt preseason poll, did not dissapoint. They entered Sun Belt conference play with only 3 losses, then started conference play with a bang, obliterating the next best team in the conference, Southern Miss. Including that game, they won 10 straight, including a win against third-best at the time Marshall. Then, they had to visit Southern Miss, who’s undefeated at home. And, they lost, as Southern Miss took hold of first place in the conference and never let Louisiana catch up. 

Since that game, Louisiana has been a bit cold, losing 3 of their last 6 against very good teams. Louisiana has the best player in the conference in Jordan Brown, who’s carried the Ragin Cajuns in most games this season. 

Louisiana’s success depends on quality of play from their backcourt, as though Brown is always going to do his job down low, their guards have been prone to being outplayed. Louisiana is less upset-prone than other teams in the conference, but how will they fare against James Madison, Troy, and Southern Miss, who they all recently lost to?

Marshall

Much like Louisiana and Southern Miss, Marshall has been inconsistent. They started the season off with a loss to Queens, but followed that up with wins against very good Akron and Toledo teams. 

Then, in conference play, they beat Southern Miss, but followed that up with a loss at home against UL Monroe. However, these losses were not due to best player Taevion Kinsey’s quality of play, or even shooting percentages. They’ve shot decently in all of their losses, and Kinsey has been their leading scorer in most of them. 

I think that they just have a bad habit of playing teams close, reminiscent of a Virginia team. In all of their 7 losses, only one has been by double digits (10 at Louisiana) and they average out to about 5 points per loss.

However, much unlike Virginia, they have both one of the best offenses in the country as well as the 8th highest tempo. They are top 25 in points per game, assists per game, and rebounds per game, so that’s why they never get blown out. But the concern for Marshall is - Will their defense show up when it is needed most?

Sleeper

South Alabama

Picked to finish third in the Sun Belt at the beginning of the year, the Jaguars had very high expectations from both me and the rest of the college basketball world. These expectations were due to South Alabama’s transfers. They brought in Kevin Samuel and Tyrell Jones, who are both former 4-star recruits, as well as Diante Smith, who was a fringe - 4 star. And after adding VMI 18 PPG transfer Greg Parham, this team was looking stacked.

South Alabama didn’t get off to the best start, starting the season 3-6. But, I don’t blame them. They had an absolute juggernaut of a schedule that was more difficult than most high-majors. They had to play New Mexico, Alabama, Oklahoma, Towson, FAU and UAB. They also played Alabama, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Towson very close, within 10 points. So, the season was looking pretty good so far.

But, in Sun Belt play, they started 2-7. They beat a very good James Madison team, but unfortunately, they couldn’t repeat these results. It seemed that the team was suffering from the lack of chemistry that comes from playing together, which these players had not done yet before this season.

They only lost to Louisiana by 3, Southern Miss by 4, Coastal Carolina by 4, and ODU by 4. So, they were playing well, but hadn’t developed a winning team yet. After starting the season 2-7, USA has gone 8-2 including a 31 point win over first place Southern Miss.

In my opinion, South Alabama is on the level of the top 6 in the Sun Belt, but they’ll have to prove it in order to earn an NCAA Tournament bid.

Bracket Prediction